It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
